Tag Archives: San Francisco Giants

Lincecum Doesn’t “Scatter”

By Chad King

As the sky is rapidly descending in the Little Chicken world of Lincecum-Land, I wanted to take a deeper look at exactly, er, statistically, anyway, what is going on and perhaps surmise a reason as to why the “ace” is struggling so mightily this season. Typical explanations that I hear on the crazy train that is the KNBR caller populous are velocity and location. I think velocity has very little to do with his current struggles. Yes, his fastball is averaging 90.2 mph this season, down from 92.2 in 2011 and 91.2 in 2010, but he was touching 93 yesterday against the Padres. I think his velocity comes and goes by start but doesn’t have a real net affect on the outcome as much as his ability to locate his pitches. His walks per 9 IP and walk average is way up, which suggests lack of command, and that lack of command will not only translate into walks, but also pitches over the middle of the plate that were originally intended to catch a corner or drop low (see 0-2 counts on Carlos Quentin, Tony Gwynn Jr., etc. for less than optimal results). This has resulted in a much higher batting average against, hits per 9 innings, and even batting average for balls hit in play, being way above the league average (see those purty graphs below for my attempt to convince you that I know what I’m talking about).

They are just lines, people

Some lines going up are good, however, these particular lines…not so much

But wait, what is this graph? LOB%? Is that how often he lobs the ball to his opponent?

Timmy, that green line’s a little too sloped there…bring it up a bit, will ya?

No, although his performance may indicate that he’s doing that more often; this shows how many runners he leaves on base. LOB% and ERA are inverse of each other, as one rises, the other falls; the lower the LOB%, the higher the ERA. The funny thing is, historically, pitchers with high strikeout percentages will have higher LOB% as they can limit the number of scoring opportunities via sac flies, fielders choices and the like. Timmy’s strikeouts have barely dipped, still averaging 24.1% (24.4% in 2011). Yet, his LOB% has absolutely plummeted to 60.9% what FanGraphs calls “awful.” This dramatic drop is out of proportion to the drop in his other stats. The league average over the years is 72% and Lincecum’s lowest LOB% is 75.9% in 2009.

What can be attributed to such a monumental drop in LOB%? I believe it’s the all too frequent “big inning.” He has allowed 3 or more earned runs in one inning in 8 of his 12 starts. You know that old saying, “pitcher X scattered 8 hits and 4 walks over 7 innings?” Well, Timmy doesn’t “scatter,” he “lumps.” Unfortunately, these big innings unravel faster than my toddler’s temper tantrum when he doesn’t get his lollipop. He can be cruising and just completely run into a series of walks, a couple of bloops, and then a bomb, all in a series of 4 or 5 hitters. Take a look at his game log by start and inning. I’ve highlighted these “big innings,” which have accounted for 30 of his 43 earned runs. To put another way, he has given up 70% of his earned runs in a total of less than 8 of his 66.1 innings pitched (several of these starts he didn’t even finish the “big inning”).

The bottom line is that the Giants are now 2-10 when Lincecum starts, including 7 consecutive losses. They’ve only lost 25 games this year.

He said yesterday that he might be pulling out of his funk, but until he can prove it by avoiding a string of mental lapses that lead to these big innings, I’m not buying it. Maybe they should let Timmy smoke? More Giants fans are probably doing so now.

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Episode 31: The Robb Nen Episode

It’s a holiday podcast! Chad and Ben talk a lot of Lincecum, and a little Bumgarner, and start getting a little nervous…but then talk Melky, Posey, and Pagan and everything seems a little better. Who do we love this week? Who do we hate? How many awkward things is Ben going to say after having to work on a national holiday? Tune in to find out!

Ben’s appearance on the Curse of Benitez COBcast
Giants stats from the 5-hole and 2-hole
Great blog post from Carl Steward about Bonds, Belt, and Giants hitters

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Episode 30: The Orlando Cepeda Episode (not retired, though)

“By the way, who are these guys on this roster?”

The Giants are back to .500 and the boys are feeling somewhat better but still aren’t convinced. Why? Well, we’ll tell you all about it.

Giants defense still sucks, Arias seems capable, Culberson realizes a childhood dream, “Thunder Dan” makes an incredible catch with BBQ in hand, and Chad wishes harm on Kemp (and today he went on the DL…hmmmm, now he’s wishing for a winning lottery ticket as well).

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Episode 29: The Hector Sanchez Episode

After a tough week the Giants find themselves in some trouble in the west. A walk-off win makes everyone feel better though, even Chad, Ben and Willie.

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Episode 28: The Buster Posey Episode

While Ben is on a dream trip on the east coast, there’s still baseball going on here. So Chad and Willie discuss the first 22 games of the year and what some of the notable happenings have been so far. 12-10

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Remembering Alexis

I’ve put off writing this post — my first on the TortureCast blog — for about five days now.

Five days is a long time to try and sort out thoughts about something like this, and I’m not sure I’m any closer now than when I started.  But it wouldn’t be much of a blog post if I didn’t try, so, let me start at the beginning:

Last Saturday, the San Francisco Yacht Club tragically lost five sailors to an accident, the worst accident in the history of a club that has existed since 1896.  One freak wave, then another, hit the “Low Speed Chase”, sweeping nearly all of the crew overboard near the Farallon Islands, and while some survived and were recovered, others were not so lucky.

One of those unlucky ones was Alexis Busch, a former Giants bat girl from the days of Candlestick Park — the first bat girl in all of Major League Baseball.  Daughter of former Giants executive VP Corey Busch, Alexis grew up around the game as a part of the Giants organization, or as Larry Baer put it, the Giants family.

I had already had tickets to the game on Monday, and didn’t learn they would have a memorial — or who it would be for — until that afternoon.  Once I found out, I left work early, and what had originally been a resignation to missing the first inning or two became a desperate race to get to the stadium on time.  I couldn’t miss it, no matter what, and suddenly, that game — that instant — had taken on a new meaning to me that transcended far past baseball.

You see, in perhaps a very roundabout way, the TortureCast might not be here if it wasn’t for Alex.

I first met Alex in 2006, working in the theater at San Francisco State University.  Alex was the ultimate irrepressible spirit, a tomboy with energy to spare and a humongous smile when she really got going.  Find a topic she was interested in and she’d hit the ground running, and being in a theater department, it’s safe to say we spent a lot of time on interesting topics.

It was a semester later that we took a lighting design class together, neither of us really being solidly lighting-inclined — lighting design was my emphasis, but I’d never worked with it on a professional level before, and Alex was more into stage management.  Somehow, though, we’d always end up next to each other in class, and every other day it seemed I was nudging her to calm down and pay attention and she was kicking me to make sure I didn’t pass out on my drafting table after another long night in the theater.  I never quite got where all of her energy came from, but you can bet I appreciated every bit of it.

See, it was right around 2006 that I got back into baseball.  I don’t remember how it started — after years of loosely following a game I vaguely understood when my mother would happen to have the radio on — but sometime around late ’06, I started in again.  Maybe it was Bonds’ home run chase.  Maybe it was the timing, having met other fans working with SFSU’s Orientation team over the summer.  Maybe it was just something inevitable, as a love for baseball that had percolated in my head for years finally re-emerged right when I had never expected it, but when baseball and I fell back in love, we fell hard, and Alex played a huge part in that.

Alex and I would talk baseball whenever we weren’t talking theater, and that was whenever we weren’t working in class.  That’s a gross oversimplification, but I remember that out of all of my friends at the time, Alex had the clearest grasp on baseball, a game I was still sometimes struggling to figure out.  Whether it was talking about playing, or about her experiences as a bat girl — something I still wish I’d asked her more about, now that I really can appreciate it — or working on an increasingly ambitious low-budget, high-talent musical called Floyd Collins, for which Alex was the hard-working and hard-pressed stage manager, it was impossible not to be astounded and inspired by Alex’s energy and sheer perseverance through the most stressful situations.

It seemed like the most natural thing when she went to umpire camp, something else I wish I’d quizzed her more on.  I’d been back into baseball for a year or two by now, paying attention when I could, listening to more games than I missed, when I learned Alex had spent time training to be an umpire.  For some reason I’d never considered the possibility before; maybe I thought umpires magically grew out of former players and tree leaves, I don’t know.  But Alex really made me think about what it meant to “have a career in baseball”.  I knew that was what she wanted to do, and I knew she spent some time working with and for the Giants when she wasn’t stage managing around the end of her college career.  But it had never occurred to me to be more than just a consumer of baseball, but to really learn it, become involved, learn to talk about it — if not as an umpire, then at least in an educated manner.

I would have to guess that, even subconsciously, the TortureCast came out of some of that desire to make something more out of my relationship with baseball, and while Alex and I looked at the game in slightly different ways, if it wasn’t for her example maybe the podcast never would have happened, or become what it is — two statheads and a charismatic lug trying to provide the most in-depth and entertaining analysis we can on the game and team that we love.

The Daily Mail somehow found a photo of her in a dress, presumably from a wedding.  I’ll be the first to admit Alex and I didn’t stay that close as we got older, but I’ll be darned if a dress is ever the first thing that comes to mind when I think of Alex Busch.

When I got to the park early that Monday, I stood quietly near the arcade, cap removed, as the names of the five sailors lost in the crash of the “Low Speed Chase” were displayed, prominently, simply, and respectfully, on the scoreboard.  All around me, on the walkway, the crowd continued to buzz, buying snacks, chatting with friends, and paying little attention to the memorial as they prepared for what would be an exciting game against the Philadelphia Phillies, and for just an instant, I was annoyed that none of them seemed to understand what it was they as a Giants community, a theater community, a San Francisco community had just lost.

But then I remembered the girl that would sit next to me in lighting design class, in her tie-dyed shirts and backwards Giants caps, the one that could never sit still and found the funny side of the most serious situations, and I remembered how she never liked to get stuck thinking about just one thing for too long.

And I think, somehow, that she understands.

(EDIT 4/22: We took design in 2006, not ’07.)

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Interview: Thurm und Drang

Fangraphs and SB Nation’s Wendy Thurm, also known as @hangingsliders, sits down with Ben to talk about Spring Training, Bumgarner’s emergence, her choices for franchise players, statistics, and facial hair.  Originally recorded shortly before Opening Day.

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Episode 27: “Aubrey Huff, the Ab Closet”

Chad and Ben reunite with Erin to discuss a difficult week in Giants fandom, discussing the revelation of Wilson’s injury, what is happening to Lincecum, the team’s defense versus its offence, our Bizarro World Giants, and Matt Cain is very good.  Also, Aubrey Huff.  A lot of Aubrey Huff.

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Episode 25: “Mean People Suck”

This brings back memories of Clark's single up the middle, Mitchell's bare-handed grab, and, er, Maldonado's slide

Stream it here…yes, press that little play button above!

Willie returns from his great adventures abroad at SXSW and Vegas to have a Ben-less hour long conversation with Chad about the Giants’ potential shakeups on the roster, given the injuries of Vogelsong and Freddie Sanchez, a potential middle infielder trade may open the door for Burris, Buster’s first play (GASP) at the plate this spring, Zito’s shelling, Cain’s dominance (have we signed him yet?), the possible shifting sands of the outfield, 49 year old Jamie Moyer beffudles the Giants, Hector “Babe” Sanchez, and John Bowker goes 0-4, 2Ks for the Giants against the Oakland A’s….oh right, the Yomiuri Giants, that is. We do a little hating on Dodger lawyers, dish out advice on how to act as a visiting fan, and praise the glory of the return of the late 80’s roadie.

Almost certain that Freddy ain’t ready
Buster’s first play at the plate
Zito’s poor start today; time to panic yet? 
Starting outfield might shift? Shierholtz continues to struggle, Blanco impresses
Former Giant John Bowker to play vs. A’s in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants
Dodgers lawyers that tried to block Stowe’s lawsuit
 
 

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Episode 24: “Garlic Fries and Chicken Tenders”

Chad and Ben jump into Spring Training talk looking at some recent results and some recent injury revelations and how they impact the players in camp.  They also discuss converted infielders like Sergio Santos as well as several cuts to minor leaguers and roster invitees before bringing on Christina Russo for an interview and some of her Spring Training experiences.  We wind up with a discussion of gender and female fans, hate on Bryce Harper, and close with a somber note on Fabrice Muamba.

Bumgarner goes 5 scoreless (SFG)
Sergio Santos throws crazy sliders (Olney, ESPN – Insider article)
Sanchez may not be ready for Opening Day (SFG)
Lincecum puts Kershaw in headlock for ESPN Mag (Yahoo)
On the Giants and Female Fans (Bay Area Sports Guy)
 
Ben also strongly recommends this article from Mac of @AerysSports: 100 Easy Ways to Lose A Man
 
Find and follow our guest Christina Russo at http://www.christina-russo.com/ or on Twitter at @swagstina.

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