Tag Archives: Chad King

by | April 29, 2013 · 12:46 PM

The Vogelsong Enigma

Vogelsong is struggling to return to 2011-2012 form. And he hates cereal bowls a lot. (photo: dailyrepublic.com)

We love the game face. We love the bull-dog determination. We love the playoff performances last year that helped them win it all.

But everything has gone south for Ryan Vogelsong so far this year. The question is, why?

I’m not going to pretend that I know, and I’m going to guess he would just called it an unlucky slump, and there is certainly some truth to that. I’m not trying to single Vogey out in this article, as Cain is worth of one as well (so that may be coming soon). However, Vogelsong is that guy we all pull for, the underdog, and I want to at least consider why this may be happening.

In a stunning turn of events for the first 25 games of the season, the Giants are second to LAST in starting staff ERA at 4.27 and only ahead of the team that just swept them (SD at 5.33). This is abhorrent, Twilight zonish, perplexing. This staff is supposed to be part of the NL-elite, not within the neighborhood of the Padres or Rockies. Of course Cain and Vogey are the two main culprits, with ERAs of 6.59 and 6.23, respectively. Only Bumgarner is keeping the Giants from the cellar of this statistic, with a sparkling 1.87 ERA.

Back to Mr. Game Face’s statistical breakdown:

Vogelsong has a .303 batting average against and has allowed 10 BB and 7 HR in 30.1 IP, while his WHIP is almost as high as my cholesterol at 1.55.  He gave up 17 HR ALL SEASON last year in 189.2 IP and only 8 HR by the all star break when he had 110.2 IP.

Why so many big flys?

Clearly when batters start hitting the ball out of the park with more frequency than a Kardashian getting fat, they are not being fooled. Hitters are making contact more often with pitches in the strike zone, and more alarming, is the BABIP has skyrocketed into 2012 Timmy territory from .284 to .330. Homeruns per nine IP is a video-game like 2.08, almost triple what he allowed last year, and approximately 1 out of 5 fly balls have traveled over the fence, just a bewildering statistic. Most of the other metrics (K%, BB% and pitch selection) have not changed dramatically, and the problem seems to be isolated in not being able to fool opposing hitters as often with balls in the strike zone. This may be correlated with a drop in the timing differential between his fastball and changeup, two pitches that make up 60% of his pitches delivered. His fastball is 1.4 MPH slower this year (89.4 vs 90.8),  and the change up, ironically, is slightly faster by 0.4 MPH, which makes the timing differential an average 1.8 MPH smaller, which is a sizeable 23% difference. The lowered chance of throwing opposing hitters’ timing off will only serve to hurt Vogelsong in the long run.

I’m not hitting the panic button yet, and neither should Giants fans; it’s only 5 starts, for crying out loud. He did tail off for the last 2 months of the regular season last year, but we can’t say it’s the start of his decline connected to this year, as he had a stellar playoff run. If tossing bowls of cereal across his kitchen gets him motivated, then lets all hope he has stock in Crate and Barrel and a good maid service.

– Chad

Stats that will alleviate your panic:

  • Giants are only 2 games back of AZ/COL
  • After 25 games last year, the Giants were 2 games worse at 12-13 and 5 GB of LAD.
  • The Giants have lost all 5 of Cain’s starts; surely that will turnaround (right?)
  • Giants are second in batting average in the NL at .267
  • Giants are second in batting average in the NL with runners in scoring position
  • Torres won’t EVER do that again
  • Scutaro won’t EVER do that again
  • Ok, those last 2 aren’t stats

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by | April 1, 2013 · 6:27 PM

Clayton Kersaw is Leading the Giants by 1 Game

I think Kershaw closed his eyes on this swing

So today didn’t go quite as we all would have liked, and no, it was not an April Fools’ joke. Take solace in the fact that Clayton Kershaw beat the Giants, with his masterful pitching, and of course, his first career MLB home run off of Kontos in the bottom of the eighth to break a scoreless tie. Entering today’s game, Kershaw owned a 1.37 career ERA versus the Giants, and obviously lowered it by pitching a complete game shutout today.

Who knows what would have happened if Bochy had brought in Affeldt in the 8th instead of sticking with Kontos (Affeldt was warming up in the 7th, and the Dodgers had 2 lefties to lead off the eighth). I bring this up because I saw some buzz on Twitter (clearly full of even-tempered Giants fans) already chastising Bochy’s first non-move of the season. Kontos was solid in the 7th, and hey, shit happens. Yeah, Kershaw ain’t Don Robinson, Matt Cain, or Babe Ruth with the lumber, but every dog has his day, even at the plate.

The bullpen effort was a bit of a comedy show in the eighth, with a wild pitch, a walk, a botched bunt coverage, a hit batsman, extra base hits, and of course, the Kershaw home run, all leading to 4 runs, but they’ll be fine. There’s always more focus on the results of the first day of the season. It’s like a new toy you unwrapped as a kid at Christmas. You love it, caress it, play the hell out of it for the first hour or two before it usually ends up lost or in the toy bin to only get a little attention from time-to-time.

I mean, both the Astros and Dodgers are in first place right now. That won’t last long, right?

How to comfort the black and orange faithful out there:

  • The first game of the season is the equivalent to the first 18 SECONDS of an NBA game
  • The D’backs swept the Giants to open the 2012 season (and look what happened)
  • The Giants lost their first game against the Dodgers in 2012 (9-1) and lost 2 of 3 in that first series (and look what happened)
  • Panda went 2-4 and played good defense today (elbow, elbow, elbow)
  • Posey cut down a speedy Crawford attempting to steal third
  • Pence hit one to the left field wall
  • Posey lined out hard to third base that would have set up second and third with one out
  • Despite a tough first inning (29 pitches), Matt Cain looked solid out there, delivering 6 innings of shut out ball
  • I nice stiff rum and coke (or three)

Let’s hope the G-men can get back on track tomorrow.

Chad

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by | March 30, 2013 · 1:02 PM

Your #28 Giants Jersey is good through 2021

Posey can buy lots of jerseys for us, probably every fan to walk through the gates of AT&T.

Yesterday the Giants made sure that my Buster Posey jersey will not go out of date until the year 2021. Who cares about the money? It’s financially the equivalent to me as earning the Nobel Peace Prize; it’s out of the realm of possibility and into fantasy.

(view our interview with Buster Posey in February below)

Inevitably people will know the value of this deal, but I’ve had a completely opposite visceral reaction that I had to the Zito signing in 2006. At that time, I assumed Zito was on the downtrend of his career, and the Giants were overpaying for a “former” Cy Young award winner. However, even though Posey’s contract is bigger that Zito’s, I completely approve of it, as do many Giants fans and national baseball writers. How can you say no to the reigning MVP, batting title winner, Comeback Player of the Year, and Rookie of the Year. This often used stat really rings true, the SF Giants are 2 for 2 in World Series championship years with Posey and 0 for 53 without him.

I’m sure that later in his tenure with the Giants, he’ll be playing first base and DH in interleague games, and perhaps he won’t be today’s Posey in year 9 of this deal. However, even if the Giants don’t win another World Series while Posey is here, and even if he performs under our expectations in the second half of his deal, it’s still a worthy payment to a man who has helped bring 2 championships to the great city of San Francisco. That’s worth something, isn’t it?

Chad

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by | November 5, 2012 · 9:16 AM

We Are THE CHAMPIONS – per Ashkon Music

Ashkon is one talented musician. He brought us the rally cry cover of “Don’t Stop Believin‘” in 2010, last year’s “Feeling Like a Giant,” which is our opening tune, and now today, he debuted this pearl that got some of us all teary-eyed.

 

From 2011:

 

From 2010:

 

Let’s hope something is in store for 2013!

– Chad

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by | October 14, 2012 · 10:16 AM

Episode 39: The Roberto Kelly Playoff Special

Didn’t think this would be happening. Courtesy of The City Graphics.

The three of us finally get together since they clinched the NL West, and it appeared that this would be a post-mortem episode they way the Cincinnatti series started. Alas, the black and orange comeback kids have extended their season against another magical comeback team, the St. Louis Cardinals.

Willie, Chad and Ben review the NLDS, criticize Dusty Baker for his managerial moves or non-moves in Game 5, and discuss how the Giants won the series, despite getting out-hit and out-pitched.

All 3 of us predict the Giants will beat the Cardinals in 6, but Chad thinks the series may go 9 games due to the nature of both teams’ inability to quit.

With magic on both sides, it may be Harry Potter vs. Voldemort.

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by | August 15, 2012 · 12:25 PM

Spoiled Melk

This news doesn’t taste good (from gotbrainy.com)

The Melk has spoiled.

In a magical season for Melky Cabrera, a career year, All Star game MVP, the adoration of Melkmen and Melkmaids, and one that has helped propel the Giants to the top of the division, the team and the public were notified today that he tested positive for testosterone, a banned substance.

Not that it matters much, but Melky immediately admitted he took a substance “he knew he shouldn’t have,” and apologized to the team and the fans. It’s certainly better than other players that have denied use of PEDs, attributing their positive test to a supplement, or even worse, a delayed FedEx delivery (looking at you, Braun). Personally, it’s not much of a reprieve of the blow the Giants will take, and their chances of pushing towards the playoffs. Fifty games is fifty games, no matter if you deny it or accept responsibility. There is no additional punishment for denial.

The Commissioner’s office has also confirmed that he will be eligible after 4 games into the postseason, should the Giants make it. So, if they do make the divisional round, he could see action in games 6 & 7 and afterwards, or potentially 5-7 if they have a one game wild card playoff.

Although this news cracked the wires less than an hour ago, there’s already twitter chatter about how this will affect his contract next year. Many stating that obviously he made a mistake not negotiating a contract with the Giants earlier in the year, which is predicated upon the fact that his monster year will garner up to or over $15 million per year on the open market. Sorry to say, Melky, that number was at least cut in half, in my opinion. It’s not only because of your new record of testing positive, but now there will obviously be questions about how the testosterone improved your performance. Assuming he’s off of it next year, how will his numbers change? Will he be a .350 hitter with 15 bombs? Since this is a career year for him, and it happens to be during a time he was taking PEDs, I would say, probably not.

That doubt will now linger in the minds of the Giants front office, the other 29 clubs, and especially Giants fans, much like when you gamble with a carton of milk that’s a few days past its expiration date with the “sniff” test.

Chad King

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by | July 31, 2012 · 11:08 PM

Giants Not “Pence”-ive as a Free Agent “Hunter”

Right park, different uni (manginphotography.net)

First of all, I apologize for the title, but I was in the NY Post spirit with the Mets in town.

Hunter Pence is the player that many Giants fans have been drooling over for quite some time, and in all honesty, the Giants didn’t give up as prized of a prospect as they did last year as they jettisoned Zach Wheeler for a Beltran rental (btw, can we have him back, now?)

It’s not generally recommended to react to trades completed by your divisional rival, but in this case the Giants had to put at least one more bullet in the chamber as the Dodgers put a few (Ramirez, Victorino, and almost Dempster). Alas, the gaping bleeding hole in their lineup is a right handed bat, and much as I like him, Brett Pill ain’t the medicine for that ailment. Pence is a nice fit, an energetic player with pop and speed. He reminds me a little of Eric Byrnes; very awkward in the field, not majestic in his mechanics, but god damn if he doesn’t just get the job done, he does it better than most.

Shierholtz had a nice tenure with the Giants; a player that always aspired to do more, yet was solid in his contributions, despite not getting as many opportunities as he’d hoped for. His comments in the Chronicle a few weeks ago essentially put an “X” on his back regarding trade bait. His comments may not have been detrimental to the clubhouse, but perhaps you want to change the scenery for that player in the interests of both parties. Heck, he’s even reuniting with one of his best buds, Kevin Frandsen, who was recently promoted from AAA. Frandsen was even in Shierholtz’s wedding. Tommy Joseph is a promising talent, but the Giants are flush at catcher, a position that teams generally have a paucity. San Francisco still has Hector Sanchez, Andrew Susac, and some guy wearing number 28.

Unfortunately, the Giants will have to deal with arbitration with Pence this offseason, and if Beltran is any indication of how he feels that AT&T Park is a black hole that just sucks power numbers away from any bat that lingers near its center, Pence may come to find that the next 30 odd games played in this pitcher’s haven are not kind to the stat sheet. Nonetheless, if they get into October, he could smell the allure of a triples record next year?

-Chad King, @chadk21

 

 

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by | July 21, 2012 · 6:59 PM

Mitch Williams has a 23 year old grudge against the Giants

ImageToday’s game felt like a lock for the Giants after Cain went deep, even after Hamels matched him in the next inning. That in itself, was entertaining, the first pair of pitchers to go deep off each other since 2002. I just re-read that last sentence, and it sounded dirty. I’m too lazy to re-construct that pseudo-erotic writing. However, after Howard put the Phillies ahead, I figured that might be it, “eh, they’ve had a good road trip, guaranteed .500, I need to forage for a warm beer anyway.”

I suppose this year has a different vibe than last year. The pitching is still there (sans Lincecum, plus Zito), but the offense has improved, despite their situational hitting failures (although they’ve been excellent since the break). So, a few sips into my warm cerveza, the Giants indeed pulled off the comeback, starting with solo Melk delivery in the 8th. Cain really only made one big mistake (to Howard), which was three out of the 5 runs. Take that away, and his line is great. Nevertheless, he kept them in the game with 8 innings, despite his un-Cain-like 3 homeruns given up.

Posey is a beast, he is “en fuego” with an accelerant added on top. Over his last 9 games, he’s hitting at a .531 clip, with 2 homeruns and 13 RBI. His average has soared from .288 to .314 in that span. He’s hitting the ball to all fields; much like my son throws objects to all corners of my house. Tonight, he was 4 for 5 with a homerun and 3 RBI. He also read a suicide squeeze correctly that Blanco did not, and he was hung out to dry.

Casilla is a man of mystery. He doesn’t always save games, but when he does, he does it with torture. After blowing 5 of his last 8 save opportunities, and stirring the trade speculation pot, he allowed a one out walk and a streaking rocket to Theriot at second to end the game. Not a masterpiece, but something to build his confidence on, as baseball is a fickle game. Maybe Casilla plays fantasy baseball. I miss Brian Wilson’s torture.

Even if the Giants lose tomorrow, they have secured a 4-2 road trip, the antithesis of their previous road trip that closed out the first half at 1-5. If they can muster a sweep tomorrow, the Giants will be 5-1 on this road trip and 8-1 since the break. Even if they lose tomorrow, 7-2 is slightly passable.

Let’s hope Kemp and Either don’t heat up too much.

– Chad King

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by | June 6, 2012 · 1:06 PM

Lincecum Doesn’t “Scatter”

By Chad King

As the sky is rapidly descending in the Little Chicken world of Lincecum-Land, I wanted to take a deeper look at exactly, er, statistically, anyway, what is going on and perhaps surmise a reason as to why the “ace” is struggling so mightily this season. Typical explanations that I hear on the crazy train that is the KNBR caller populous are velocity and location. I think velocity has very little to do with his current struggles. Yes, his fastball is averaging 90.2 mph this season, down from 92.2 in 2011 and 91.2 in 2010, but he was touching 93 yesterday against the Padres. I think his velocity comes and goes by start but doesn’t have a real net affect on the outcome as much as his ability to locate his pitches. His walks per 9 IP and walk average is way up, which suggests lack of command, and that lack of command will not only translate into walks, but also pitches over the middle of the plate that were originally intended to catch a corner or drop low (see 0-2 counts on Carlos Quentin, Tony Gwynn Jr., etc. for less than optimal results). This has resulted in a much higher batting average against, hits per 9 innings, and even batting average for balls hit in play, being way above the league average (see those purty graphs below for my attempt to convince you that I know what I’m talking about).

They are just lines, people

Some lines going up are good, however, these particular lines…not so much

But wait, what is this graph? LOB%? Is that how often he lobs the ball to his opponent?

Timmy, that green line’s a little too sloped there…bring it up a bit, will ya?

No, although his performance may indicate that he’s doing that more often; this shows how many runners he leaves on base. LOB% and ERA are inverse of each other, as one rises, the other falls; the lower the LOB%, the higher the ERA. The funny thing is, historically, pitchers with high strikeout percentages will have higher LOB% as they can limit the number of scoring opportunities via sac flies, fielders choices and the like. Timmy’s strikeouts have barely dipped, still averaging 24.1% (24.4% in 2011). Yet, his LOB% has absolutely plummeted to 60.9% what FanGraphs calls “awful.” This dramatic drop is out of proportion to the drop in his other stats. The league average over the years is 72% and Lincecum’s lowest LOB% is 75.9% in 2009.

What can be attributed to such a monumental drop in LOB%? I believe it’s the all too frequent “big inning.” He has allowed 3 or more earned runs in one inning in 8 of his 12 starts. You know that old saying, “pitcher X scattered 8 hits and 4 walks over 7 innings?” Well, Timmy doesn’t “scatter,” he “lumps.” Unfortunately, these big innings unravel faster than my toddler’s temper tantrum when he doesn’t get his lollipop. He can be cruising and just completely run into a series of walks, a couple of bloops, and then a bomb, all in a series of 4 or 5 hitters. Take a look at his game log by start and inning. I’ve highlighted these “big innings,” which have accounted for 30 of his 43 earned runs. To put another way, he has given up 70% of his earned runs in a total of less than 8 of his 66.1 innings pitched (several of these starts he didn’t even finish the “big inning”).

The bottom line is that the Giants are now 2-10 when Lincecum starts, including 7 consecutive losses. They’ve only lost 25 games this year.

He said yesterday that he might be pulling out of his funk, but until he can prove it by avoiding a string of mental lapses that lead to these big innings, I’m not buying it. Maybe they should let Timmy smoke? More Giants fans are probably doing so now.

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by | March 26, 2012 · 12:17 PM

Episode 25: “Mean People Suck”

This brings back memories of Clark's single up the middle, Mitchell's bare-handed grab, and, er, Maldonado's slide

Stream it here…yes, press that little play button above!

Willie returns from his great adventures abroad at SXSW and Vegas to have a Ben-less hour long conversation with Chad about the Giants’ potential shakeups on the roster, given the injuries of Vogelsong and Freddie Sanchez, a potential middle infielder trade may open the door for Burris, Buster’s first play (GASP) at the plate this spring, Zito’s shelling, Cain’s dominance (have we signed him yet?), the possible shifting sands of the outfield, 49 year old Jamie Moyer beffudles the Giants, Hector “Babe” Sanchez, and John Bowker goes 0-4, 2Ks for the Giants against the Oakland A’s….oh right, the Yomiuri Giants, that is. We do a little hating on Dodger lawyers, dish out advice on how to act as a visiting fan, and praise the glory of the return of the late 80’s roadie.

Almost certain that Freddy ain’t ready
Buster’s first play at the plate
Zito’s poor start today; time to panic yet? 
Starting outfield might shift? Shierholtz continues to struggle, Blanco impresses
Former Giant John Bowker to play vs. A’s in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants
Dodgers lawyers that tried to block Stowe’s lawsuit
 
 

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