Tag Archives: Chad King

by | July 21, 2012 · 6:59 PM

Mitch Williams has a 23 year old grudge against the Giants

ImageToday’s game felt like a lock for the Giants after Cain went deep, even after Hamels matched him in the next inning. That in itself, was entertaining, the first pair of pitchers to go deep off each other since 2002. I just re-read that last sentence, and it sounded dirty. I’m too lazy to re-construct that pseudo-erotic writing. However, after Howard put the Phillies ahead, I figured that might be it, “eh, they’ve had a good road trip, guaranteed .500, I need to forage for a warm beer anyway.”

I suppose this year has a different vibe than last year. The pitching is still there (sans Lincecum, plus Zito), but the offense has improved, despite their situational hitting failures (although they’ve been excellent since the break). So, a few sips into my warm cerveza, the Giants indeed pulled off the comeback, starting with solo Melk delivery in the 8th. Cain really only made one big mistake (to Howard), which was three out of the 5 runs. Take that away, and his line is great. Nevertheless, he kept them in the game with 8 innings, despite his un-Cain-like 3 homeruns given up.

Posey is a beast, he is “en fuego” with an accelerant added on top. Over his last 9 games, he’s hitting at a .531 clip, with 2 homeruns and 13 RBI. His average has soared from .288 to .314 in that span. He’s hitting the ball to all fields; much like my son throws objects to all corners of my house. Tonight, he was 4 for 5 with a homerun and 3 RBI. He also read a suicide squeeze correctly that Blanco did not, and he was hung out to dry.

Casilla is a man of mystery. He doesn’t always save games, but when he does, he does it with torture. After blowing 5 of his last 8 save opportunities, and stirring the trade speculation pot, he allowed a one out walk and a streaking rocket to Theriot at second to end the game. Not a masterpiece, but something to build his confidence on, as baseball is a fickle game. Maybe Casilla plays fantasy baseball. I miss Brian Wilson’s torture.

Even if the Giants lose tomorrow, they have secured a 4-2 road trip, the antithesis of their previous road trip that closed out the first half at 1-5. If they can muster a sweep tomorrow, the Giants will be 5-1 on this road trip and 8-1 since the break. Even if they lose tomorrow, 7-2 is slightly passable.

Let’s hope Kemp and Either don’t heat up too much.

– Chad King

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by | June 6, 2012 · 1:06 PM

Lincecum Doesn’t “Scatter”

By Chad King

As the sky is rapidly descending in the Little Chicken world of Lincecum-Land, I wanted to take a deeper look at exactly, er, statistically, anyway, what is going on and perhaps surmise a reason as to why the “ace” is struggling so mightily this season. Typical explanations that I hear on the crazy train that is the KNBR caller populous are velocity and location. I think velocity has very little to do with his current struggles. Yes, his fastball is averaging 90.2 mph this season, down from 92.2 in 2011 and 91.2 in 2010, but he was touching 93 yesterday against the Padres. I think his velocity comes and goes by start but doesn’t have a real net affect on the outcome as much as his ability to locate his pitches. His walks per 9 IP and walk average is way up, which suggests lack of command, and that lack of command will not only translate into walks, but also pitches over the middle of the plate that were originally intended to catch a corner or drop low (see 0-2 counts on Carlos Quentin, Tony Gwynn Jr., etc. for less than optimal results). This has resulted in a much higher batting average against, hits per 9 innings, and even batting average for balls hit in play, being way above the league average (see those purty graphs below for my attempt to convince you that I know what I’m talking about).

They are just lines, people

Some lines going up are good, however, these particular lines…not so much

But wait, what is this graph? LOB%? Is that how often he lobs the ball to his opponent?

Timmy, that green line’s a little too sloped there…bring it up a bit, will ya?

No, although his performance may indicate that he’s doing that more often; this shows how many runners he leaves on base. LOB% and ERA are inverse of each other, as one rises, the other falls; the lower the LOB%, the higher the ERA. The funny thing is, historically, pitchers with high strikeout percentages will have higher LOB% as they can limit the number of scoring opportunities via sac flies, fielders choices and the like. Timmy’s strikeouts have barely dipped, still averaging 24.1% (24.4% in 2011). Yet, his LOB% has absolutely plummeted to 60.9% what FanGraphs calls “awful.” This dramatic drop is out of proportion to the drop in his other stats. The league average over the years is 72% and Lincecum’s lowest LOB% is 75.9% in 2009.

What can be attributed to such a monumental drop in LOB%? I believe it’s the all too frequent “big inning.” He has allowed 3 or more earned runs in one inning in 8 of his 12 starts. You know that old saying, “pitcher X scattered 8 hits and 4 walks over 7 innings?” Well, Timmy doesn’t “scatter,” he “lumps.” Unfortunately, these big innings unravel faster than my toddler’s temper tantrum when he doesn’t get his lollipop. He can be cruising and just completely run into a series of walks, a couple of bloops, and then a bomb, all in a series of 4 or 5 hitters. Take a look at his game log by start and inning. I’ve highlighted these “big innings,” which have accounted for 30 of his 43 earned runs. To put another way, he has given up 70% of his earned runs in a total of less than 8 of his 66.1 innings pitched (several of these starts he didn’t even finish the “big inning”).

The bottom line is that the Giants are now 2-10 when Lincecum starts, including 7 consecutive losses. They’ve only lost 25 games this year.

He said yesterday that he might be pulling out of his funk, but until he can prove it by avoiding a string of mental lapses that lead to these big innings, I’m not buying it. Maybe they should let Timmy smoke? More Giants fans are probably doing so now.

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by | March 26, 2012 · 12:17 PM

Episode 25: “Mean People Suck”

This brings back memories of Clark's single up the middle, Mitchell's bare-handed grab, and, er, Maldonado's slide

Stream it here…yes, press that little play button above!

Willie returns from his great adventures abroad at SXSW and Vegas to have a Ben-less hour long conversation with Chad about the Giants’ potential shakeups on the roster, given the injuries of Vogelsong and Freddie Sanchez, a potential middle infielder trade may open the door for Burris, Buster’s first play (GASP) at the plate this spring, Zito’s shelling, Cain’s dominance (have we signed him yet?), the possible shifting sands of the outfield, 49 year old Jamie Moyer beffudles the Giants, Hector “Babe” Sanchez, and John Bowker goes 0-4, 2Ks for the Giants against the Oakland A’s….oh right, the Yomiuri Giants, that is. We do a little hating on Dodger lawyers, dish out advice on how to act as a visiting fan, and praise the glory of the return of the late 80’s roadie.

Almost certain that Freddy ain’t ready
Buster’s first play at the plate
Zito’s poor start today; time to panic yet? 
Starting outfield might shift? Shierholtz continues to struggle, Blanco impresses
Former Giant John Bowker to play vs. A’s in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants
Dodgers lawyers that tried to block Stowe’s lawsuit
 
 

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by | January 3, 2012 · 3:24 PM

Giants’ Outfield Won’t be Selling Tickets

Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nate Schierholtz.

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If that sent shudders of contempt, confusion, and depression through your central nervous system instead of excitement, I would certify you as a sane individual. The Giants have committed most of their $130 million payroll, and Giants GM Brian Sabean has been quoted as saying that the Giants are done with any significant player signing or movement1.

Neither Cody Ross nor Carlos Beltran was offered a contract, and talks never got deep. Ross was even willing to take a discount to stay with the Giants, and was quoted as saying, “it’s sad” that he isn’t donning the orange and black in 2012.

Excuse me? That’s it? That’s our outfield?

Well, that’s my first reaction, but the cogent (ha) objective part of me needs time to digest this, and after you peel back the first few layers of mediocrity, the Giants still may do alright with the status quo next year. The BIG caveat is that they cannot be riddled with injuries like they were in 2011. Their lineup will automatically improve with Posey and Freddy Sanchez playing 140+ games, and their run production should increase. But really, it couldn’t get much worse after last year’s historic anemic production.

From an statistics point of view, Beltran was a rent-a-player,  and Ross may have poured the last of his significant contributions in the 2010 playoffs, as last year was dismal (.240, 14 HR, 52 RBI). Torres also had a down year and I’m sad to see him depart for the Big Apple.

Now, bear with me, but a little statistical breakdown, assuming everyone performs like they did last year; we may actually get more production out of our outfield.

*dons green banker visor*

Last year, the three outfield positions sported a combined .248 average, 46 HRs and 180 RBI. If you divide that by three, the “average” SF Giants outfielder for a full year had 15 HRs and 60 RBI. If you look at Cabrera, Pagan, and Schierholtz and extrapolate 2011’s performance to 162 games played, they total .282, 41 HR, 222 RBI. Granted, it’s a slight reduction in power, but a significant increase in batting average, OBP and OPS.

Maybe there is hope when you add by subtraction.

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by | September 8, 2011 · 10:38 PM

Hey Bro, Can You Spare Any Runs?

By Chad King

I consider myself a die-hard Giants fan in every sense of the term, except perhaps I don’t spend quite as much time watching every game that I can due to necessary maintenance of my offspring and the fact that they usurp control of the remote control to my gorgeous HD television for such quality programming usually revolving around some mythical blue dog or dancing robot. Tangent aside, no matter how much I thought I knew about the “historical” lack of offense this year, I really had no idea how truly historical it, in fact, is.

“You don’t get it, this guy to my right doesn’t give me jack to work with.”

“You don’t get it, this guy to my right doesn’t give me jack to work with.”

Baseball-reference.com elucidated any uncertainties I had about this historical run drought. The Giants franchise has been around since 1883, 2011 being their 129th season. This year marks the second-lowest production in franchise history of runs per game at 3.38 per. Although 1902 was lower (2.87), may I remind you that this was during the height of the dead-ball era. The Giants hit 6 homeruns that year. You read that right, 6 homeruns by the team…in 140 games.

All I heard last year, especially during the playoffs, is how dreadful the Giants’ offense was. Although I concur, I think all Giants fans would take last year’s production over this year, which was a whopping 27% higher (4.3 runs per game), ranking a mediocre 43rd lowest in Giants franchise history. We had no idea how good we had it.

Unprecedented doesn’t even begin to coin the term for offensive futility. Other metrics go hand in hand with lack of run production, of course. The Giants are hitting .238 this year, third lowest in franchise, dangerously close to the .237 clip produced in the dreadful 100 loss season of 1985 that I care not to recall from my childhood.

Something I also learned in my research for this post. Baseball has had remarkably stable rules since 1900, and statistics are somewhat comparable to those of the modern era (a few skew aside, of course), and is coined the “modern era.” Did you know that the four-ball walk wasn’t even instituted until 1889? Clearly walks inflate .OBP, so when one throws out pre-1900 OBP, the 2011 Giants clip of .300 is fourth-lowest in franchise history.

“Hey Charlie, how ya doin’? By the way, got any runs you can spare a bro?”

“Hey Charlie, how ya doin’? By the way, got any runs you can spare a bro?”

With the Giants all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason, I wonder what Brian Sabean is thinking at this point? Is he lamenting the disabled list that reads like an obituary, populated with some of the better bats (Posey, F. Sanchez, Sandoval, etc.), chalking this year’s inadequacies to bad luck? Is he regretting the Zito albatross of a contract? Will he potentially gift wrap one of our premier pitchers for two or more above-average bats for 2012? Or, is he satisfied with last season, frustrated with what he couldn’t control in 2011, and ready to wipe the slate clean and start over with effectively the same team (sans Beltran) in 2012?

An interesting offseason it will be.

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