Timmy 2.0 dominated for his fourth-straight start. (Eric Risberg/AP)
We’ve all been hoping for his emergence, or better yet, his re-emergence as the dominant starter he once was. Even if he retired today, he would be one of the most popular Giants of all time with 2 rings, 2 Cy Youngs, 2 no-hitters, and a splash of playoff heroics. Yet, he just turned 30 last month, and that turn of the decade seemed to ring in a new Timmy, version 2.0. I just turned 40, but the only resurgence I’ve seen is the fat in my man-boobs.
We’ve seen flashes of brilliance in his last two dismal seasons, but nothing that was sustained, until now. Over his last four starts, he’s allowed only one run over a span of 30 1/3 innings. He had a scoreless streak of 23 innings that was snapped by a solo homerun, and he hadn’t had a streak like that since 2009, which was in between his two Cy Young seasons.
So why the change? We know his fastball velocity is the lowest it’s ever been, and will continue to drop with age. Perhaps he’s finally matured to the point where he trusts location more than “stuff.” He’s said as much in interviews, but the proof didn’t exist. Is that mentality finally translating to the field? To my un-professional eye (but I did just ‘retire’ after playing 20 years of amateur baseball, so at least I’ve seen a loooot of pitching), he is certainly more consistent, and he’s been pitching backwards as of late, with the curveball or change-up first, setting up fastballs low and on the corners, followed by either a change or another curve to keep hitters off-balance.
And to think that if Timmy was up to his old antics, the Giants would have even had a WORSE month of June? Is that possible? Let’s look at the starting rotation for the last 30 days:
| Name |
W |
L |
ERA |
IP |
HR |
BB |
AVG |
WHIP |
BABIP |
| Tim Lincecum |
4 |
1 |
1.49 |
42.1 |
1 |
12 |
0.140 |
0.76 |
0.171 |
| Tim Hudson |
1 |
4 |
4.91 |
36.2 |
3 |
8 |
0.297 |
1.42 |
0.336 |
| Ryan Vogelsong |
1 |
3 |
4.13 |
28.1 |
0 |
7 |
0.259 |
1.24 |
0.333 |
| Matt Cain |
1 |
3 |
4.83 |
31.2 |
4 |
9 |
0.282 |
1.39 |
0.323 |
| Madison Bumgarner |
1 |
3 |
5.18 |
33 |
2 |
13 |
0.260 |
1.39 |
0.320 |
Each starter only has one win in the last month, yet Timmy has four. But look at that sexy WHIP and BABIP. I know numbers turn our readers on, but you should probably go ahead and lather those up with oil, because they’re not getting any better than that. What’s remarkable is that Timmy’s walk percentage, although down slightly, is comparable with the other starters, and his strikeout percentage is actually second-lowest in the last month. It’s the quality of the pitches he’s making. His BABIP is a measly .171, which means players are making very weak contact, also translating into the .140 average against.
Now, let’s eliminate that one loss and look at his last four starts as a whole: his ERA, BA against and BABIP are 0.30, 0.101, and 0.120, respectively. Are you kidding me?!
The analysts all talk about his pitch selection. Let’s see how that stacks up in his last four starts vs his career:
| Year |
FA% |
FT% |
SL% |
CU% |
CH% |
| Last 4 starts |
24.8% |
18.3% |
27.2% |
7.4% |
22.3% |
| 2014 |
30.5% |
15.6% |
27.6% |
10.4% |
15.8% |
| 2013 |
37.2% |
12.4% |
21.2% |
10.7% |
17.6% |
| 2012 |
39.3% |
12.3% |
21.3% |
10.7% |
16.0% |
| 2011 |
42.1% |
12.6% |
24.1% |
6.4% |
14.4% |
| 2010 |
37.9% |
15.2% |
7.2% |
16.4% |
21.3% |
| 2009 |
55.1% |
0.7% |
7.1% |
18.2% |
18.8% |
| 2008 |
65.5% |
|
9.4% |
9.8% |
15.3% |
I’ve heard a lot about his curveball lately, and it does LOOK GOOD, but he’s only thrown it 7.4% of the time in his last four starts, which is much lower than his career average. What’s notable to me is how his changeup (CH%) has replaced many fastballs (FA%), having thrown almost as many changeups as heaters. I think this is one key to his recent success, aside from location being number one. Delving further into his fastball selection, although that percentage is way down, he’s relying on the two-seamer (FT%) more than he ever has, comprising roughly 2 out of 3 fastballs over his last four starts. Historically, he’s used that pitch for less than half of his fastballs, going with the four-seamer the majority of the time, which is a higher-velocity pitch. The two-seamer has more movement than the four-seamer, indicating that he’s sacrificing a bit of velocity for movement, which is only adding to the reduction in BABIP. The variance of his pitch selection is also the lowest its ever been, by far, and this may keep the batters guessing a little bit more with a more even distribution of pitches.
One caveat that must be pointed out. Three of these four starts were against the Padres and D’backs, both woefully underperforming offensively this year. He did have a commanding start against St. Louis, but this is a small, yet promising sample size.
Maybe Timmy finally has reinvented himself, or version 2.0 will need to be returned before the warranty expires.
Chad
The TortureCast 