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by | March 2, 2012 · 9:16 AM

MLB Expanded Playoffs: A “Historical” Perspective

I don’t consider myself a purist, I can handle change in this timeless game of baseball. At least they still wood bats (*cough* DH *cough*). I am a proponent of the current wild card system, even if it did come a year too late for the Giants.

For those of you that may have missed the news, MLB is on the precipice of approving the expansion of the playoffs this year. Each league would add one wild card team, meaning 10 out of the 30 teams would make the playoffs. Okay, that’s still the smallest percentage making the playoffs of any of the 4 major sports, doesn’t sound ground breaking yet. Here’s the catch: each pair of wild card teams in each league would have a one game playoff. One game? Seriously? After 162? If they are tied, fine, go at it. We’ve seen one game playoffs to determine division champs and wildcards before.

To look at the potential variability and inequity of a one game playoff, I looked at the past 17 seasons in which we have had the wild card playoff system (implemented in 1994, but that season was canceled). I added the hypothetical team that would have qualified for the second wild card in each league. I then determined the number of games back the second wild card team would have been that year:

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How the Playoffs Might Have Been – Hypothetical Wild Card Matchup History

2011 Rays v Red Sox(1 GB), Cards* v Braves (1GB)
2010 Yankees v Boston (6 GB), Braves v Padres (1GB)
2009 Red Sox v Rangers (8 GB), Rockies v Giants (4 GB)
2008 Red Sox v Yankees (6 GB), Brewers v Mets (1 GB)
2007 Yankees v Tigers/Mariners (6 GB), Rockies v Padres (tied)
2006 Tigers v Angels (6 GB), Dodgers v Phillies (3 GB)
2005 Red Sox v Indians (2 GB), Astros v Phillies (1 GB)
2004 Red Sox* v A’s (7 GB), Astros v Giants (1 GB)
2003 Red Sox v Mariners (2 GB), Marlins* v Astros (4 GB)
2002 Angels* v Red Sox/Mariners (6 GB), Giants v Dodgers (3 GB)
2001 A’s v Twins (17 GB!!), Cards v Giants (3 GB)
2000 Mariners v Indians (1 GB), Mets v Dodgers (8 GB)
1999 Red Sox v A’s (7 GB), Mets v Reds (1 GB)
1998 Red Sox v Angels (7 GB), Cubs v Giants (tied – actual one game playoff)
1997 Yankees v Angels (12 GB), Marlins* v Mets/Dodgers (2 GB)
1996 Orioles v Red Sox/White Sox/Mariners (3 GB), Dodgers v Expos (2 GB)
1995 Yankees v Angels (1 GB), Rockies v Astros (1 GB) shortened season!

“higher” wild card seed listed first

* denotes WS Champ

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Some very interesting things come out in the wash, but frankly, that’s some dirty water coming out, tinged with the joyous tears of Bud Selig at the thought of raking in a few extra bucks for additional playoff stretch drives and the 2 additional do-or-die games. Although the majority of the additional wild card teams were within 3 games of the “first” wild card team (3.9 games back average over both leagues), there are extreme examples of a vast chasm between the two. Let’s start with 2001. The Seattle Mariners tore up the league that year with an MLB -best 116 wins, the most since the 162 game schedule expansion and the best winning percentage by any team since 1954. The A’s fell 14 games short of that mark with a still impressive 102 wins and filled in as the wild card. If this new system was in place then, the A’s would have hosted the Twins in a one game playoff. The Twins had 85 wins…17 GAMES behind the A’s! Do you think the average baseball fan would have bought a Twins victory in that hypothetical situation as dogma that the Twins deserved to go over the A’s after 162? Of course not. This system enables this possibility, and it will happen at some point. This example is the fodder against those who claim they like this system, and if you want to avoid a one game playoff, just “win your division” and stop whining. Clearly division series can match up teams with large gaps in their regular season records, but at least they have 5 games to settle it, not one.

There are more examples of historically large record differences since 1995. The Yanks would have played the Angels in 1997 (12 game difference), 8 games would have separated the Mets and Dodgers in 2000 and the Red Sox and Rangers in 2009. A 7 game differential would have occurred 3 times, 6 games 5 times.

The funny thing is, as a Giants fan, the team would have historically benefited from this new system. Yes, their 2002 NL Championship may have never have happened after facing the Dodgers in a one game playoff, but the Giants would have gained a one game playoff 3 additional times since 2001 (‘01 v Cards, ‘04 v Astros, ‘09 v Rockies; They did play an actual one game playoff for the wildcard vs the Cubs in 1998 after finishing in a tie…I needed quite a few beers after Gaetti’s HR). On paper I would have taken that deal.

Five World Champs have been wild cards, including the 2004 Red Sox. Could you imagine if the Curse was never nixed if they had lost to the A’s in a one game playoff that year (even though they were 7 games better)? The Cardinals may have never won last year, perhaps the Angels in 2002 (actually, that’s fine by me), the Marlins in ‘03 (thanks Pudge) and ‘97.

I’m also not sure why Selig and Co. are pushing to get this in this year, when the end of the regular season and playoff schedules are set, and the leagues are still unbalanced. Why not just wait until 2013 when the Astros move to the AL West and the schedule can accommodate the extra playoff game? I am unequivocally against this new system. Rather, I’m for the extension of the division series to 7 games instead, much like the NBA converted to a while back.

Then again, maybe the Giants will be that lucky second wild card this year?

– Chad

 

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by | February 16, 2012 · 9:40 PM

Romo is better than Wilson

I know, blashphemy, right?

I love Brian Wilson. He is an excellent closer. He carried us through 2009 and 2010. But, I believe Sergio Romo is better.

I can’t speak to Romo’s late inning nerves. He only has 3 career saves. Brian Wilson has done that in 3 nights. However, let’s lo0k at the stats:

Looking at the last 4 years for both players, Romo has the statistical edge by far, even by ERA. Let’s look at the contact and control stats: Both players each have 2 best years for strikeouts per nine innings, Wilson with 9.57 and 11.2 in ’08 and ’10, Romo with 10.9 and 13.1 in ’09 and ’11, but Romo with the better average over that span. However, control is lopsided, which was Wilson’s Achilles. Wilson had the following walks per 9 innings from 2008-2011: 4.0, 3.7, 3.1, 5.1. Romo had: 2.1, 2.9, 2.0, 0.9. Romo put less than HALF the runners on base via the walk than Wilson. Granted, we all know how many times Wilson got out of walk-induced jams over the past few years, but that’s playing with fire. The walk percentage is even more telling. Wilson walks about 10% of batters he faces, Romo about half as much. Batting average against? Well, Romo has the edge 3 out of the last 4 years, and a dominant average. WHIP? Same, 3 out of 4, and that doesn’t even consider the dominant 2011 Romo had, while Wilson had his worst year in 2011. Romo dominates every statistical category (aside from saves, of course).

These are two pitchers heading in opposite directions. Even the speed data, which Wilson relies on more than Romo, shows that Wilson is losing his edge. His average fastball speed for the last 4 years is 95.7, 96.5, 95.9, and a career low 94.2 MPH last year. He’s losing his stuff. Granted, he was hurt last year, and probably played through some of it. However, if Chalupa man can’t regain a 95+ MPH fastball in the beginning of the season, I think we know the trend line is confirmed.

I hope it’s not true, but the Giants made shrewd moves signing Romo, Lopez, and Affeldt to multi-year contracts. I think it’s clear that Wilson is not the Giants’ closer for long.

Chad

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by | February 11, 2012 · 12:18 AM

FanFest 2012

I’ll admit, as a lifelong Giants fan, I had never made the trek up to SF for FanFest. In its 19th year, I decided to give it a shot and bring along my 6 year old daughter, whom I’m brainwashing, er, instilling in, a serious Giants’ passion. I assumed that the 40,000 that attended FanFest 2011, glowing after their World Championship, would certainly dwindle to a more management number. It dwindled…by a measly 4,000 people. So, me, my daughter, and 35,998 additional Giants fans packed into AT&T Park over the course of 5 hours on February 4, 2012. See some video highlights below.

Note to those Giants fans who arrived right at opening, and did not wait in line for 90+ minutes like the rest of us and decided to “play dumb” as you just conveniently merged with the rest of the patient crowd: please go jump off of Lefty O’Doul Bridge, you’re an embarrassment to our kind.

Now that I have that PSA out of the way, let me continue. Once we entered AT&T Park, it was fairly chaotic; I had a vice grip on my daughter’s hand as we nimbly navigated the park concourses. Eventually, we made it down to the field, where it was even harder to figure out where each of the dozen lines started, ended, or if waiting in any particular line would deposit you to a random assortment of Giants players or a jumpy house.  Good thing I’m not an autograph buff. Apparently some autograph lines were in excess of 2 hours. I did wander up to several booths, and was told that the players would rotate ever so often. I empathize with the Giants fans that waited for more than 2 hours on the 3rd level concourse ramps to get the John Hancocks of…Dan Runzler and Roberto Kelly. Ouch.

After a $10 purchase of stale chicken and fries, I decided to sit down with my daughter and take in a bit of the KNBR interviews that were happening at home plate. Shortly after we watched and listened to a hooded Tim Lincecum answer dully to standard questions from Murph and Mac, a distinguished gentleman approached us and asked if he could take our picture for his baseball blog. It turned out to be quite an interesting conversation with Michael, who grew up in Queens, his father a rabid NY Giants fans before they moved west in 1958, watching games at the Polo Grounds. In fact, his father wouldn’t take him to the Polo Grounds when the Mets started playing there, as it was Giants’ turf, not Mets. That would be kind of like the SF Giants moving, and then an expansion team, say the SF House Cats, taking up residence at AT&T Park. I wouldn’t go for that, either. Anyway, after a nice chat and a short interview, he posted his musings of FanFest, including our picture and interview at the “Grubby Glove.” The article is here: http://grubbyglove.wordpress.com/2012/02/05/san-francisco-giants-fanfest/. Check out his blog, it’s an entertaining read. The man has passion.

Unfortunately, with nothing fun to do (without waiting in 3 hour lines), my impatient daughter and I high tailed it out of there before the crowd dispersed. It was enjoyable considering it was my first FanFest, and the weather couldn’t have been better. However, unless I can get a press pass for next year, this may be my last FanFest for quite some time.

Chad

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by | January 28, 2012 · 12:04 PM

Pitchers, Catchers, and Podcasters!

It’s confirmed — The TortureCast will be making the journey out to Spring Training! We’re aiming for the middle of March but there’s a lot of details that have to be sorted out…like the exact dates…and which of us will be going…and which games we’ll be seeing…and, you know, what to have for lunch, and that sort of thing.

If you’re going to be in the Phoenix/Scottsdale area during mid-March for Spring Training, leave a comment, catch us on Twitter, or send us an email at mail@torturecast.com! As a podcast by fans for fans we’d be remiss if we didn’t try to meet some of you while we’re out there. We promise to get you more details as March gets closer!

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by | January 3, 2012 · 3:24 PM

Giants’ Outfield Won’t be Selling Tickets

Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nate Schierholtz.

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If that sent shudders of contempt, confusion, and depression through your central nervous system instead of excitement, I would certify you as a sane individual. The Giants have committed most of their $130 million payroll, and Giants GM Brian Sabean has been quoted as saying that the Giants are done with any significant player signing or movement1.

Neither Cody Ross nor Carlos Beltran was offered a contract, and talks never got deep. Ross was even willing to take a discount to stay with the Giants, and was quoted as saying, “it’s sad” that he isn’t donning the orange and black in 2012.

Excuse me? That’s it? That’s our outfield?

Well, that’s my first reaction, but the cogent (ha) objective part of me needs time to digest this, and after you peel back the first few layers of mediocrity, the Giants still may do alright with the status quo next year. The BIG caveat is that they cannot be riddled with injuries like they were in 2011. Their lineup will automatically improve with Posey and Freddy Sanchez playing 140+ games, and their run production should increase. But really, it couldn’t get much worse after last year’s historic anemic production.

From an statistics point of view, Beltran was a rent-a-player,  and Ross may have poured the last of his significant contributions in the 2010 playoffs, as last year was dismal (.240, 14 HR, 52 RBI). Torres also had a down year and I’m sad to see him depart for the Big Apple.

Now, bear with me, but a little statistical breakdown, assuming everyone performs like they did last year; we may actually get more production out of our outfield.

*dons green banker visor*

Last year, the three outfield positions sported a combined .248 average, 46 HRs and 180 RBI. If you divide that by three, the “average” SF Giants outfielder for a full year had 15 HRs and 60 RBI. If you look at Cabrera, Pagan, and Schierholtz and extrapolate 2011’s performance to 162 games played, they total .282, 41 HR, 222 RBI. Granted, it’s a slight reduction in power, but a significant increase in batting average, OBP and OPS.

Maybe there is hope when you add by subtraction.

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by | September 8, 2011 · 10:38 PM

Hey Bro, Can You Spare Any Runs?

By Chad King

I consider myself a die-hard Giants fan in every sense of the term, except perhaps I don’t spend quite as much time watching every game that I can due to necessary maintenance of my offspring and the fact that they usurp control of the remote control to my gorgeous HD television for such quality programming usually revolving around some mythical blue dog or dancing robot. Tangent aside, no matter how much I thought I knew about the “historical” lack of offense this year, I really had no idea how truly historical it, in fact, is.

“You don’t get it, this guy to my right doesn’t give me jack to work with.”

“You don’t get it, this guy to my right doesn’t give me jack to work with.”

Baseball-reference.com elucidated any uncertainties I had about this historical run drought. The Giants franchise has been around since 1883, 2011 being their 129th season. This year marks the second-lowest production in franchise history of runs per game at 3.38 per. Although 1902 was lower (2.87), may I remind you that this was during the height of the dead-ball era. The Giants hit 6 homeruns that year. You read that right, 6 homeruns by the team…in 140 games.

All I heard last year, especially during the playoffs, is how dreadful the Giants’ offense was. Although I concur, I think all Giants fans would take last year’s production over this year, which was a whopping 27% higher (4.3 runs per game), ranking a mediocre 43rd lowest in Giants franchise history. We had no idea how good we had it.

Unprecedented doesn’t even begin to coin the term for offensive futility. Other metrics go hand in hand with lack of run production, of course. The Giants are hitting .238 this year, third lowest in franchise, dangerously close to the .237 clip produced in the dreadful 100 loss season of 1985 that I care not to recall from my childhood.

Something I also learned in my research for this post. Baseball has had remarkably stable rules since 1900, and statistics are somewhat comparable to those of the modern era (a few skew aside, of course), and is coined the “modern era.” Did you know that the four-ball walk wasn’t even instituted until 1889? Clearly walks inflate .OBP, so when one throws out pre-1900 OBP, the 2011 Giants clip of .300 is fourth-lowest in franchise history.

“Hey Charlie, how ya doin’? By the way, got any runs you can spare a bro?”

“Hey Charlie, how ya doin’? By the way, got any runs you can spare a bro?”

With the Giants all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason, I wonder what Brian Sabean is thinking at this point? Is he lamenting the disabled list that reads like an obituary, populated with some of the better bats (Posey, F. Sanchez, Sandoval, etc.), chalking this year’s inadequacies to bad luck? Is he regretting the Zito albatross of a contract? Will he potentially gift wrap one of our premier pitchers for two or more above-average bats for 2012? Or, is he satisfied with last season, frustrated with what he couldn’t control in 2011, and ready to wipe the slate clean and start over with effectively the same team (sans Beltran) in 2012?

An interesting offseason it will be.

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